Assessing the Impacts of Groundwater Depletion and Aquifer Degradation on Land Subsidence in Lahore, Pakistan: A PS-InSAR Approach for Sustainable Urban Development

Abstract

In various regions worldwide, people rely heavily on groundwater as a significant water source for daily usage. The resulting large-scale depletion of groundwater has triggered surface deformation in densely populated urban areas. This paper aims to employ Persistent Scattered Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) techniques to monitor and quantify the land surface deformation (LSD), assess the relationships between LSD and groundwater levels (GWL), and provide insights for urban planning in Lahore, Pakistan, as the research area. A series of Sentinel-1 images from the ascending track between 2017 and 2020 were analyzed. Moreover, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and coefficient of determination were computed to analyze the long-term trends and spatial relationships between GWL depletion and line of sight (LOS) displacement. Our findings reveal significant increases in land subsidence (LS) and GWL from 2017 to 2020, particularly in the city center of Lahore. Notably, the annual mean subsidence during this period rose from −27 mm/year to −106 mm/year, indicating an accelerating trend with an average subsidence of −20 mm/year. Furthermore, the MK test indicated a declining trend in GWL, averaging 0.49 m/year from 2003 to 2020, exacerbating LS. Regions with significant groundwater discharge are particularly susceptible to subsidence rates up to −100 mm. The LS variation was positively correlated with the GWL at a significant level (p < 0.05) and accounted for a high positive correlation at the center of the city, where the urban load was high. Overall, the adopted methodology effectively detects, maps, and monitors land surfaces vulnerable to subsidence, offering valuable insights into efficient sustainable urban planning, surface infrastructure design, and subsidence-induced hazard mitigation in large urban areas.