Assessing the impacts of dam/weir operation on streamflow predictions using LSTM across South Korea

Abstract

Recently, weather data have been applied to one of deep learning techniques known as “long short-term memory (LSTM)” to predict streamflow in rainfall-runoff relationships. However, this approach may not be suitable for regions with artificial water management structures such as dams and weirs. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the prediction accuracy of LSTM for streamflow depending on the availability of dam/weir operational data across South Korea. Four scenarios were prepared for 25 streamflow stations. Scenarios #1 and #2 used weather data and weather and dam/weir operational data, respectively, with the same LSTM model conditions for all stations. Scenarios #3 and #4 used weather data and weather and dam/weir operational data, respectively, with the different LSTM models for individual stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were adopted to assess the LSTM’s performance. The results indicated that the mean values of NSE and RMSE were 0.277 and 292.6 (Scenario #1), 0.482 and 214.3 (Scenario #2), 0.410 and 260.7 (Scenario #3), and 0.592 and 181.1 (Scenario #4), respectively. Overall, the model performance was improved by the addition of dam/weir operational data, with an increase in NSE values of 0.182–0.206 and a decrease in RMSE values of 78.2–79.6. Surprisingly, the degree of performance improvement varied according to the operational characteristics of the dam/weir, and the performance tended to increase when the dam/weir with high frequency and great amount of water discharge was included. Our findings showed that the overall LSTM prediction of streamflow was improved by the inclusion of dam/weir operational data. When using dam/weir operational data to predict streamflow using LSTM, understanding of their operational characteristics is important to obtain reliable streamflow predictions.