Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach

Arifa Jannat,Jun Furuya,Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata

doi:10.3390/su13095011

Abstract

From the perspective of nutritional security, we investigated the influence of climate change on potato production in Bangladesh using a supply and demand model by considering the potato as an important non-cereal food crop. To provide an outlook on the variation in potato supplies and market prices under changing climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and solar-radiation), the yield, area, import, and demand functions were assessed using district-level time-series data of Bangladesh (1988–2013), disaggregated into seven climatic zones. Results suggest that temperatures above or below the optimal range (18–22 °C) lowered yields. Little rainfall and low solar radiation hinder potato cultivation areas during the potato maturity stage. During the simulated period, the annual production was projected to rise from 88 to 111 million metric tons (MT), with an equilibrium farm price of 155 to 215 US dollars MT−1. Between 2014 and 2030, the nation’s per-capita potato intake is expected to increase from 49 to 55 kg year−1 because of changing dietary patterns. According to the estimated equilibrator, scenario simulations that incorporated various dimensions of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios indicate that potato production and consumption can increase in the future.

Highlights

Published: 29 April 2021Climate change will make hunger eradication more challenging, with reduced agricultural production, increased food prices, and reduced food availability, with consequent adverse health effects [1,2,3]
The findings revealed that temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation negatively affect potato production in almost all regions
Economists are concerned that agriculture in many economically developing countries will be more vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in economically developed countries [63] because economically developing countries are more reliant on agriculture

Summary

Introduction

Climate change will make hunger eradication more challenging, with reduced agricultural production, increased food prices, and reduced food availability, with consequent adverse health effects [1,2,3]. 2050, agricultural production must be boosted by 60% [4]. The yields of major staple crops are projected to decline considerably because of changing climate. Research results indicate that climate change is expected to reduce yields of maize (20–45%), wheat (5–50%), rice (20–30%), and soybeans (30–60%) [4] by 2100. Agriculture must transition to more productive, resilient, and sustainable processes to cope with changing climate [4]. Most economically developing and low-income countries rely on cereal crops for their nutritional security. Research findings have demonstrated that 1.9–2.3 billion people obtain

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Conclusion