Assessing the Impact of the United States Postal System and Election Administration on Absentee and Mail Voting in the 2012 to 2020 U.S. Midterm and Presidential Elections

Abstract

Absentee and mail voting were important ways of ballot casting during the coronavirus pandemic and the 2020 presidential election. Several studies (Burden et al. 2014, 2017; Ritter and Tolbert 2020) have established that the impact of absentee and mail voting is shaped by the presence of other election laws and broader features of a state's election administration. However, more study is needed to address whether and to what degree accessible versus restrictive features of a state's election administration impact the ability of individuals to vote in these ways. Using the accessible voting framework (Ritter and Tolbert 2020) and data from the 2018 and 2020 Catalist voter file as well as the 2012 to 2020 Cooperative Election Study, this study evaluates the impact of excuse required absentee, no-excuse absentee, permanent absentee, and universal mail voting laws on individual-level voting. In addition, this study evaluates whether state cure laws, voter identification laws, notary or witness signature requirements, and variations in United States Postal Service delivery times moderate the impacts of absentee and mail voting laws. Ultimately, this study demonstrates that the level of accessibility of state absentee and mail voting laws as well as their administration have significant effects on voter turnout. The results also reveal that higher performing U.S. Postal Service administration can enhance the impact of absentee and mail voting laws, particularly in states with the most restrictive mail voting laws.