Assessing the impact of the "one-child policy" in China: A synthetic control approach.

Stuart Gietel-Basten,Yuan Cheng,Xuehui Han,Bruno Masquelier

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0220170

Stuart Gietel-Basten, Yuan Cheng + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220170

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Abstract

There is great debate surrounding the demographic impact of China’s population control policies, especially the one-birth restrictions, which ended only recently. We apply an objective, data-driven method to construct the total fertility rates and population size of a ‘synthetic China’, which is assumed to be not subjected to the two major population control policies implemented in the 1970s. We find that while the earlier, less restrictive ‘later-longer-fewer’ policy introduced in 1973 played a critical role in driving down the fertility rate, the role of the ‘one-child policy’ introduced in 1979 and its descendants was much less significant. According to our model, had China continued with the less restrictive policies that were implemented in 1973 and followed a standard development trajectory, the path of fertility transition and total population growth would have been statistically very similar to the pattern observed over the past three decades.

Highlights

In 2015, China ended all one-birth restrictions [1]
There is currently a large focus placed on the appraisal of the population control policies imposed in the late 1970s [2]
The policies have been cited as the root cause of other challenges [8], including skewed sex ratios at birth [9], the questionable demographic data because of hidden children [10], and social problems associated with the enforced creation of millions of one-child families [11]

Summary

Introduction

In 2015, China ended all one-birth restrictions [1]. The move to a national two-child policy is intended to facilitate a more balanced population development and to counter aging. One significant change in the family planning policy is that couples with one daughter in rural areas could have a second child after a certain interval, which ranges from four to six years, and this was fully implemented in 18 provinces by the end of 1989.

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