Assessing the Impact of Tax Reforms on the Long-Term Sustainability of Public Finances

Abstract

The article is devoted to the methodological aspects of assessing the impact of tax reforms on the sustainability of public finances. The low impact of numerous tax changes during 2003–2017 in Ukraine aimed at reducing the tax burden, improving the investment climate, led to a narrowing of fiscal space, a decrease in government investment, and a curtailment of enterprise investment. The problem of assessing the direct and indirect effects of tax reforms in terms of changes in tax rates and tax base, tax revenue structure, tax benefits, on public finances and the finances of economic entities in the short and long term remains insufficiently investigated. The task is to identify the relationship between tax policy changes that are taking place within the framework of tax reforms, the economic behavior of economic entities, and their impact on the sustainability of public finances.
 The article identifies trends in the development of taxation in the EU, which create the conditions for activation of the factors of development of innovative, competitive economy, in particular, the reduction of corporate income tax rates and personal income tax while expanding the tax base, increasing consumption taxes on property. The methodological support of the assessment of tax reforms of EU countries is summarized and the conclusion is made about the possibility of its application in Ukraine. Changes in the share of various taxes in the total amount of tax revenues are analyzed. The reasons and the financial consequences of the tax effects in Ukraine established in the EU countries were found to be associated with a reduction in corporate income tax rates and a compulsory social contribution (lower rates do not reduce tax revenues and increase the budgetary income in the medium term). Indicators and models that can be used to assess tax reforms aimed at improving tax competitiveness (reducing tax rates), as well as reforms to ensure economic growth (redistribution of tax burden and tax incentives - tax innovation benefits) are identified. It is proposed to supplement this list with indicators: the level of investment of the institutional sectors of the economy, the investment rate, the level of profitability, the global innovation index.
 Proposals on adjusting the directions of tax development in Ukraine have been elaborated.