Assessing the Impact of Salt Reduction Initiatives on the Chronic Disease Burden of Singapore
Globally, many countries are facing an increasing burden of chronic disease due to ageing populations, of which cardiovascular disease forms a large proportion. Excess dietary sodium contributes to cardiovascular disease risk and requires intervention at a population level. This study aimed to quantify the impact of several salt reduction initiatives on population health over a 30-year horizon using GeoDEMOS, a population model from Singapore. Four interventions were modelled in four demographic groups in 2020 for a total of 16 intervention scenarios. The effect of 0.5, 2.0, and 4.0 g/day reductions in daily salt consumption, along with adherence to the World Health Organization guidelines of a maximum of 5.0 g of salt each day, was modelled in the entire population, including the overweight and obese, the elderly, and diabetics. In each scenario, the number of averted incident cases of acute myocardial infarction and stroke, along with the disability-adjusted life years up to 2050, was monitored. We found 4.0 g/day reductions in salt consumption were the most effective when implemented across the entire population, resulting in 24,000 averted incident cases of cardiovascular disease and 215,000 disability-adjusted life years over 30 years. This is a large figure when compared with the 29,200 projected annual incident cases of cardiovascular disease in 2050. When targeted at specific high-risk demographic groups, the largest effects were observed in the overweight and obese, with the same intervention yielding 10,500 averted incident cases of cardiovascular disease and 91,500 disability-adjusted life years. Quantifying the benefits of salt reduction initiatives revealed a significant impact when administered across the entire population or the overweight and obese. Health promotion efforts directed toward sustainably reducing salt consumption will help to lower the chronic disease burden on the healthcare system in years to come.
- Research Article
2
- 10.1590/1678-9865202336e220216
- Jan 1, 2023
- Revista de Nutrição
Objective This study aims to estimate the epidemiological burden of excessive salt intake reduction and achieve the World Health Organization salt reduction target for 2025 in Paraguay, in 2019. Methods We used the Preventable Risk Integrated Model, a comparative risk assessment macro-simulation model, to estimate the averted deaths, disease incidence, and disability-adjusted life years from cardiovascular disease attributable to salt intake in the population of Paraguay for different salt reduction policy scenarios. Results As a result, in Paraguay, excessive salt intake (over 5 g/day) is responsible for approximately 2,656 cardiovascular disease deaths (95% Uncertainty Interval: 1,250-3,765), 4,816 cardiovascular disease cases (95% UI: 2,251-6,947), and 60,529 disability-adjusted life years (95% UI: 27,828-86,258) per year. By reducing salt consumption by 30%, as recommended by the World Health Organization until 2025, approximately 1,188 deaths (95% UI: 520 to 1,820), 2,100 incident cases (95% UI: 923-3,234), and 27,272 disability-adjusted life years (95% UI: 11,999-41,675) from cardiovascular disease could be averted every year. Conclusion In conclusion, the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to excessive salt intake is significant and salt reduction policies must become a priority in Paraguay.
- Research Article
10
- 10.1111/tmi.13508
- Nov 27, 2020
- Tropical Medicine & International Health
To estimate the burden of disease of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in Brazil in 2014, 1year before the Zika virus epidemic, and in 2015 and 2016 during the epidemic. The burden of disease of GBS was estimated using the summary measure of population health: Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), that combines both mortality (Years of Life Lost YLLs) and morbidity (Years Lived with Disability) components. The study population was composed of GBS hospitalised cases and deaths from the information systems of the Brazilian Unified Health System. The GBS incidence rate in 2014, 2015 and 2016 was 0.74, 0.96, 1.02/100000 respectively, and the mortality rate in the same period was 0.08, 0.009 and 0.11/100000 habitants. The DALYs calculated using the point estimate of GBS disability weight and its values of the confidence interval (0.198 and 0.414) were 5725.90 (5711.79-5742.89) in 2014, 6054.61 (6035.57-6077.54) in 2015 and 7588.49 (7570.20-7610.51) in 2016. The DALYs were high among the male population and in age groups between 20 and 50years. The increase in DALYs in the years 2015 and 2016 compared to 2014 probably resulted from the introduction of ZIKV in Brazil, reinforcing the importance of investments in the prevention of ZIKV infection and in the care of GBS patients.
- News Article
1
- 10.1136/bmj.e4648
- Jul 6, 2012
- BMJ : British Medical Journal
<h3>Background</h3> A range of policies aim to reduce salt intake; however, their relative effects remain unclear. We undertook a narrative synthesis of existing evidence to determine the most promising approaches....
- Abstract
- 10.1136/jech-2012-201753.114
- Sep 1, 2012
- Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
BackgroundA range of policies aim to reduce salt intake; however, their relative effects remain unclear. We undertook a narrative synthesis of existing evidence to determine the most promising approaches.MethodsWe searched...
- News Article
- 10.1136/bmj.g6035
- Oct 6, 2014
- BMJ : British Medical Journal
<h3>Background</h3> A range of policies aim to reduce salt intake; however, their relative effects remain unclear. We undertook a narrative synthesis of existing evidence to determine the most promising approaches....
- Research Article
24
- 10.1371/journal.pone.0221556
- Sep 11, 2019
- PLoS ONE
BackgroundIn Turkey, hypertension was responsible for 13% of total deaths in 2015. We apply existing research finding regarding the impact of a population-wide reduction in sodium consumption on the decrease of the hypertension prevalence rate among 15+ years population and the gender-age specific reduction in total death rates among 30+ years population, and compare hypertension burden, averted deaths, costs and benefits between two scenarios.MethodsThe first scenario (i.e. status quo) assumes constant hypertension prevalence rate and the death rates between 2015 and 2030. Based on the Framingham Heart Study and INTERSALT Study findings on the impact of salt-reduction strategies on hypertension prevalence rate, the second scenario (Scenario II) assumes a 17% reduction in the prevalence of hypertension in Turkey in 2030, from its 2015 prevalence level. We project hypertension attributable disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2030, monetize DALYs using GDP (and income) per capita, and compare the projected economic benefits of DALYs averted and the additional costs associated with the increases in hypertension treatment through antihypertensive medications and physician consultations.ResultsThe estimated benefits of reducing the economic burden of hypertension deaths outweigh the cost of providing hypertension treatment. A decrease in hypertension prevalence by 17%, attributable to population-wide reduction in salt consumption, is projected to avert 24.3 thousand deaths in 2030. We projected that, compared to status quo, 392 thousand DALYs will be averted in Scenario II in 2030. The economic benefits of reduction in potential hypertension deaths are estimated to be 6.7 to 8.6 folds higher than the additional cost of hypertension treatment.ConclusionPopulation-wide hypertension prevention and management is a win-win situation for public health and the Turkish health care system as the economic benefits of reducing deaths and disabilities associated with hypertension outweigh the costs significantly.
- Research Article
280
- 10.1371/journal.pone.0177535
- May 18, 2017
- PloS one
BackgroundNon-communicable disease (NCD) prevention strategies now prioritise four major risk factors: food, tobacco, alcohol and physical activity. Dietary salt intake remains much higher than recommended, increasing blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and stomach cancer. Substantial reductions in salt intake are therefore urgently needed. However, the debate continues about the most effective approaches. To inform future prevention programmes, we systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of possible salt reduction interventions. We further compared “downstream, agentic” approaches targeting individuals with “upstream, structural” policy-based population strategies.MethodsWe searched six electronic databases (CDSR, CRD, MEDLINE, SCI, SCOPUS and the Campbell Library) using a pre-piloted search strategy focussing on the effectiveness of population interventions to reduce salt intake. Retrieved papers were independently screened, appraised and graded for quality by two researchers. To facilitate comparisons between the interventions, the extracted data were categorised using nine stages along the agentic/structural continuum, from “downstream”: dietary counselling (for individuals, worksites or communities), through media campaigns, nutrition labelling, voluntary and mandatory reformulation, to the most “upstream” regulatory and fiscal interventions, and comprehensive strategies involving multiple components.ResultsAfter screening 2,526 candidate papers, 70 were included in this systematic review (49 empirical studies and 21 modelling studies). Some papers described several interventions. Quality was variable. Multi-component strategies involving both upstream and downstream interventions, generally achieved the biggest reductions in salt consumption across an entire population, most notably 4g/day in Finland and Japan, 3g/day in Turkey and 1.3g/day recently in the UK. Mandatory reformulation alone could achieve a reduction of approximately 1.45g/day (three separate studies), followed by voluntary reformulation (-0.8g/day), school interventions (-0.7g/day), short term dietary advice (-0.6g/day) and nutrition labelling (-0.4g/day), but each with a wide range. Tax and community based counselling could, each typically reduce salt intake by 0.3g/day, whilst even smaller population benefits were derived from health education media campaigns (-0.1g/day). Worksite interventions achieved an increase in intake (+0.5g/day), however, with a very wide range. Long term dietary advice could achieve a -2g/day reduction under optimal research trial conditions; however, smaller reductions might be anticipated in unselected individuals.ConclusionsComprehensive strategies involving multiple components (reformulation, food labelling and media campaigns) and “upstream” population-wide policies such as mandatory reformulation generally appear to achieve larger reductions in population-wide salt consumption than “downstream”, individually focussed interventions. This ‘effectiveness hierarchy’ might deserve greater emphasis in future NCD prevention strategies.
- Research Article
9
- 10.3389/fnut.2025.1570321
- May 9, 2025
- Frontiers in Nutrition
BackgroundThe global burden of diet-related chronic diseases and their future projections remain unclear. To address this gap, we present the latest data on deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributable to dietary factors from 1990 to 2021, focusing on noncommunicable diseases worldwide. Additionally, we provide predictions of mortality rates across different age groups through 2030.MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were analyzed to evaluate correlations between dietary factors and trends in chronic disease burden over a 30-year period. Moreover, we predicted the burden of chronic dietary diseases up to 2030.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates associated with dietary factors decreased by approximately one-third for neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, neoplasm-related deaths showed a stronger correlation with dietary factors, particularly high red meat intake. In cardiovascular diseases, the leading dietary factors are low-grain diets, whereas in diabetes, it is due to increased intake of processed meat. In low-SDI regions, diets low in vegetables showed the strongest association with neoplasm-related mortality, while diets low in fruits were significantly linked to CVD and diabetes burden. High-sodium diet was a significant risk factor for CVD in the middle-SDI regions. Moreover, the 2030 projections indicated a decline in mortality from neoplasms and CVDs, with a slight increase in mortality rates from diabetes.ConclusionThe global burden of chronic diseases linked to dietary factors shows varying trends across different countries and regions, particularly influenced by their economic development levels. This variation underscores the necessity of enhancing dietary structures to mitigate chronic disease prevalence and foster overall health.
- Research Article
1
- 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2024.107768
- May 13, 2024
- Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases
Population analysis of ischemic stroke burden and risk factors in the United States in the pre- and post-mechanical thrombectomy eras
- Research Article
8
- 10.1177/02184923231200695
- Sep 7, 2023
- Asian Cardiovascular and Thoracic Annals
In the context of the population growing and aging worldwide, the incidence of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease increased rapidly. This study aimed to describe the burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease, providing an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis on the global and regional levels and time trends from 1900 to 2019. The Global Burden of Disease 2019 was used to obtain data for this analysis. Non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in the Global Burden of Disease study includes both non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease and non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease. The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by location, year, sex, age, and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage change was calculated to represent the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. Spearman's rank order correlation was used to determine the correlation between socio-demographic index and the incidence and burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease. Globally, there were 1.65 million (95% uncertainty interval, 1.56-1.76 million) incident cases, 0.16 million (95% uncertainty interval, 0.14-0.18 million) death cases, and 2.79 million (95% uncertainty interval, 2.52-3.31 million) disability-adjusted life years of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, death cases, and disability-adjusted life years in 2019 increased by 104.58%, 210.60%, and 167.62%, respectively, the age-standardized incidence rate (estimated annual percentage change, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.29 to 0.49) increased due to population growth, and the age-standardized death rates (estimated annual percentage change, -0.32; 95% confidence interval, -0.39 to -0.25) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (estimated annual percentage change, -0.81; 95% confidence interval, -0.87 to -0.74) decreased during this period. Regarding the socio-demographic index, the highest age-standardized incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease were found in high-socio-demographic index countries in 2019. Meantime, the age-standardized incidence rate remained increased from 1990 to 2019, while significant decreases were found in the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate. Females have higher age-standardized incidence rate, while higher age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate belong to males globally during the period of 1990-2019. Increasing trends were observed for both incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates with age. High systolic blood pressure was the leading cause for non-rheumatic valvular heart disease across all ages. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease remained increased, while age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate decreased, resulting from the growing population worldwide and improving medical resources. The aged, who has high systolic blood pressure and diet high in sodium, should pay more attention to, especially in high-socio-demographic index regions. With the population aging, the number of patients who require heart valve replacement is estimated to increase significantly in the future. Effective measures are warranted to control and treat the incidence and burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease.
- Research Article
14
- 10.21767/2049-5471.100061
- Jan 1, 2018
- Diversity & Equality in Health and Care
Background: Chronic diseases are considered the greatest public health concern globally, and contributor to a large burden of disease in developed world, and increasing rapidly in developing countries as well as Palestine. Where, Palestine is experiencing an epidemiological transition and a rapid increasing burden of chronic diseases as a consequence of rapid modifications in people behaviors. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project has made possible a new methodological approach and conceptual framework to estimate the burden of diseases and other health problems in populations everywhere nationally and globally. Objective: We quantify the burden of chronic diseases using disability – adjusted life years (DALYs) for 2010 in the Palestinian healthcare sector. Methodology: In this study, we adapted Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) methodology for measuring the burden of chronic diseases in the main two entities of Palestinian territories, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) measurement. The measurement tools and their standards templates were specially designed for assessing the burden of disease, developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate and quantify the burden of chronic diseases. The study used secondary data extracted from multiple sources including Ministry of Health (MOH) materials and annual reports about chronic diseases mortalities registered in 2010 and also data about chronic diseases morbidity collected by Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) Demographic & Heath Survey data 2010 (DHS) performed in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Results: In 2010, DALYS lost due to selected chronic diseases in the current study were estimated as (60/1000 DALYs) in the West Bank while (57/1000 DALYs) in Gaza Strip respectively, considering that each one DALY is thought of as one lost year of ideal healthy life. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and hypertension contributed to the highest proportion of DALYs among males and females in 2010 in the West Bank and Gaza strip followed with cancer (lung cancer in males vs. breast cancer in females) and then respiratory disease (COPD) with small difference in rank order. There also were sex and region differences. Heart diseases specifically Ischemic heart disease (IHD) also continued to rank highly as a cause of both YLLs and mortality, followed by cancer among Palestinian populations in both the West Bank and Gaza strip for both sexes in 2010, indicating the major causes of chronic diseases burden in Palestine in 2010. Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that heart diseases followed with cancer remains the major chronic diseases burden in the Palestinian healthcare sector in the Palestinian territories in both Gaza strip and West bank. Our study recommends that further studies using more recent data are important and needed. Additionally, our study findings indicate the need for basic intervention to tackle these burdens. In general, attention has to be increasingly paid to chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in the Palestinian territories.
- Research Article
9
- 10.3390/ijerph17165960
- Aug 1, 2020
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Despite efforts to reduce its incidence, tuberculosis continues to burden the rapidly aging Korean society. This study aimed to investigate the current trend of tuberculosis burden in Korea and its projections to 2040. We used National Health Insurance claims data to calculate the disability-adjusted life years due to tuberculosis in Korea. Disability-adjusted life years were measured by summing the years of life lost and the years lived with disability using an incidence-based approach. We modeled the incidence rates using a time-series model for the projection of disability-adjusted life years accrued from 2020 to 2040. The total disability-adjusted life years due to tuberculosis were 69, 64, 59, and 49 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 population in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. In both sexes, disability-adjusted life years were the highest in those aged ≥80 years. Projected disability-adjusted life years showed a descending trend from 38 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 in 2020, to 14 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 in 2040. Conversely, the projected disability-adjusted life years increased among females aged ≥80 years. Although the tuberculosis burden in Korea is decreasing, a high burden remains among the elderly. Therefore, interventions targeting those vulnerable are required.
- Research Article
22
- 10.1016/j.ekir.2021.04.038
- May 5, 2021
- Kidney International Reports
Global Disease Burden From Acute Glomerulonephritis 1990–2019
- Research Article
6
- 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1384122
- Apr 10, 2024
- Frontiers in Public Health
Non-communicable diseases are a global health problem. The metric Disability-Adjusted Life Years was developed to measure its impact on health systems. This metric makes it possible to understand a disease's burden, towards defining healthcare policies. This research analysed the effect of healthcare expenditures in the evolution of disability-adjusted life years for non-communicable diseases in the European Union between 2000 and 2019. Data were collected for all 27 European Union countries from Global Burden of Disease 2019, Global Health Expenditure, and EUROSTAT databases. Econometric panel data models were used to assess the impact of healthcare expenses on the disability-adjusted life years. Only models with a coefficient of determination equal to or higher than 10% were analysed. There was a decrease in the non-communicable diseases with the highest disability-adjusted life years: cardiovascular diseases (2,952 years/105 inhabitants) and neoplasms (618 years/105 inhabitants). Health expenditure significantly decreased disability-adjusted life years for all analysed diseases (p < 0.01) unless for musculoskeletal disorders. Private health expenditure did not show a significant effect on neurological and musculoskeletal disorders (p > 0.05) whereas public health expenditure did not significantly influence skin and subcutaneous diseases (p > 0.05). Health expenditure have proved to be effective in the reduction of several diseases. However, some categories such as musculoskeletal and mental disorders must be a priority for health policies in the future since, despite their low mortality, they can present high morbidity and disability.
- Research Article
13
- 10.1007/s10654-017-0247-x
- Jan 1, 2017
- European Journal of Epidemiology
The relation of alcohol consumption with disease burden remains debated partly due to opposite associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The relation of alcohol consumption with disease burden expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) summarizes opposing associations of alcohol consumption on chronic diseases. This study aimed to investigate the association of alcohol consumption with chronic disease burden expressed in DALYs based on individual-participant data. The study was a prospective study among 33,066 men and women from the EPIC-NL cohort. At baseline, alcohol consumption was assessed with a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Participants were followed for occurrence of and mortality from chronic diseases and DALYs were calculated. After 12.4 years follow-up, 6647 disease incidences and 1482 deaths were documented, resulting in 68,225 healthy years of life lost (6225 DALYs). Moderate drinkers (women 5–14.9 g/day, men 5–29.9 g/day) had a lower chronic disease burden (mean DALYs −0.27; 95% CI −0.43; −0.11) than light drinkers (0–4.9 g/day), driven by a lower disease burden due to CVD (−0.18: −0.29; −0.06) but not cancer (−0.05: −0.16; 0.06). The associations were most pronounced among older participants (≥50 years; −0.32; −0.53; −0.10) and not observed among younger women (−0.08; −0.43; 0.35), albeit non-significant (pinteraction > 0.14). Substantial drinking (women 15–29.9 g/day, men 30–59.9 g/day) compared to light drinking was not associated with chronic disease burden. Our results show that moderate compared to light alcohol consumption was associated with living approximately 3 months longer in good health. These results were mainly observed among older participants and not seen among younger women.