Abstract
Globally, many countries are facing an increasing burden of chronic disease due to ageing populations, of which cardiovascular disease forms a large proportion. Excess dietary sodium contributes to cardiovascular disease risk and requires intervention at a population level. This study aimed to quantify the impact of several salt reduction initiatives on population health over a 30-year horizon using GeoDEMOS, a population model from Singapore. Four interventions were modelled in four demographic groups in 2020 for a total of 16 intervention scenarios. The effect of 0.5, 2.0, and 4.0 g/day reductions in daily salt consumption, along with adherence to the World Health Organization guidelines of a maximum of 5.0 g of salt each day, was modelled in the entire population, including the overweight and obese, the elderly, and diabetics. In each scenario, the number of averted incident cases of acute myocardial infarction and stroke, along with the disability-adjusted life years up to 2050, was monitored. We found 4.0 g/day reductions in salt consumption were the most effective when implemented across the entire population, resulting in 24,000 averted incident cases of cardiovascular disease and 215,000 disability-adjusted life years over 30 years. This is a large figure when compared with the 29,200 projected annual incident cases of cardiovascular disease in 2050. When targeted at specific high-risk demographic groups, the largest effects were observed in the overweight and obese, with the same intervention yielding 10,500 averted incident cases of cardiovascular disease and 91,500 disability-adjusted life years. Quantifying the benefits of salt reduction initiatives revealed a significant impact when administered across the entire population or the overweight and obese. Health promotion efforts directed toward sustainably reducing salt consumption will help to lower the chronic disease burden on the healthcare system in years to come.
Highlights
Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117549, Singapore; Academic Editor: Kevin D
We aimed to model and compare the impacts of four interventions of varying amounts of salt reduction on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke incidence for the whole population and three high risk groups separately: the elderly defined as persons aged 65 and above, overweight individuals defined as persons with a body mass index (BMI) greater than 23, and diabetic individuals
We examined the impacts in terms of the number of incident cases averted and the reduction in the disease burden, and modelled the future incidence of AMI and stroke under the interventions until 2050
Summary
Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117549, Singapore; Academic Editor: Kevin D. We found 4.0 g/day reductions in salt consumption were the most effective when implemented across the entire population, resulting in 24,000 averted incident cases of cardiovascular disease and 215,000 disability-adjusted life years over 30 years. This is a large figure when compared with the 29,200 projected annual incident cases of cardiovascular disease in 2050. When targeted at specific high-risk demographic groups, the largest effects were observed in the overweight and obese, with the same intervention yielding 10,500 averted incident cases of cardiovascular disease and 91,500 disability-adjusted life years. With a mean daily intake of 8–9 g reported in 2018 [7,8], where cardiovascular diseases contributed 14.2%
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