Abstract
Abstract. Development of hazard maps is one of the measures promoted by the international community to reduce risk. Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas to be affected by one or several hazards. As such they are useful tools to evaluate risk and support the development of safe policies. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In hazardous environments, accessibility of the population to strategic infrastructure is important because emergency services and goods will principally be offered at or provided from these locations. If a road segment is blocked by a hazard, accessibility to services may be affected, or worse, people may be completely disconnected from specific services. The importance of each road segment in the transport network as a connecting element enabling access to relevant services is therefore critical information for the authorities. In this study, we propose a new application of hazard mapping which aims to define the importance of each road segment in the accessibility to services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. By iteratively removing one segment after the other from the road network, changes in accessibility to critical infrastructure are evaluated. Two metrics of road segment importance considering the population affected and the hazard probability are calculated for each segment: a road accessibility risk metric and a users' path vulnerability metric. Visualization of these road metrics is a useful way of valuing hazard maps and may help to support discussions about the development of new infrastructure, road capacity increase and maintenance of existing infrastructures, and evacuation procedures.
Highlights
A well-developed transport network is essential to the smooth running of a country since it plays an important role in supporting social and economic activities (Hong et al, 2015; Jenelius et al, 2006; Mattsson and Jenelius, 2015; Nagurney and Qiang, 2012)
For long-term management, the road accessibility risk metric (1) identifies road segments that are exposed to hazard and that would substantially reduce access to infrastructure if being obstructed by a lava flow and (2) enables us to quickly calculate and visualize the impact of any changes proposed in the road network on accessibility and exposure
Accessibility analysis in a hazardous situation is important since the population must be able to effectively evacuate, access shelters or medical infrastructure, while emergency services must be able to assist the population in situ
Summary
A well-developed transport network is essential to the smooth running of a country since it plays an important role in supporting social and economic activities (Hong et al, 2015; Jenelius et al, 2006; Mattsson and Jenelius, 2015; Nagurney and Qiang, 2012). Even if roads are considered to be essential infrastructure, the road network is often designed to function close to maximum capacity to minimize the costs, with small margins of reserve capacity and little redundancy (Mattsson and Jenelius, 2015; Taylor et al, 2006). Given the functional value of the road network, studies have been conducted to assess road-network-related vulnerability to a disruption from different points of view. Other studies assess the robustness of the road network as a whole, defined as the degree to which the system can function correctly according to its design specifications
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