Abstract
A mathematical model considering female and male individuals is proposed to evaluate vaccination strategies applied to control of HPV transmission in human population. The basic reproductive number of the disease, $R_0$, is given by the geometric mean of the basic reproductive number of female and male populations. The model has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever $R_0 <1$. Furthermore, it has an unique endemic state when $R_0$ exceeds unity which is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations were done to compare several different vaccination schedules. The results showed that the vaccination strategies that do not include vaccination of men can only control the disease if more than 90\% of women are vaccinated. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the relevant parameters to control HPV transmission, in order of importance, are vaccine efficacy times the fraction of population that is vaccinated, disease recovery-rate, and disease transmission rate. Therefore, health politics that promoting the increase of vaccine coverage, and screening for the disease in both population can improve disease control.
Highlights
Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection common in young sexually active individuals
The sensitivity analysis indicated that the relevant parameters to control HPV transmission, in order of importance, are vaccine efficacy times the fraction of population that is vaccinated, disease recovery-rate, and disease transmission rate
We run 5000 simulations that correspond to different input parameter sets, and the output chosed for the sensitivity analysis is R0
Summary
Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection common in young sexually active individuals. They concluded that vaccination can increase (competing types of virus) or decrease (synergistic interactions) the prevalence of the non-target type depending on the type of the interaction among virus [8] Both benefit of male vaccination and behaviour change were discussed by measuring its impact on R0; when waning immunity is included in the model, disease elimination is more difficult to be achieved [3]. The full analysis of the steady states is done This simple model captures disease dynamics and can be used to discuss strategies of HPV control, highlighting the important parameters related to the disease transmission, geographic diferences in disease prevalence, and target groups.
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