Assessing the impact of morphed CMIP6 climate model outputs on building energy performance simulations

Abstract

In this paper we utilise the latest generation of climate change models from Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to morph typical meteorological year (TMY) weather files. These morphed files are used in conjunction with a standard set of reference models for the climate zones in the United States. Building energy demand, comfort, and photovoltaic (PV) yield are all simulated and evaluated for how they can be expected to change under each climate scenario. We find that the shifts in various preference metrics may vary seasonally in both magnitude and direction. Additionally, the overall distribution of the change can be highly variable across the US climate zones. The results indicate that buildings, as designed now, may not be able to provide comfortable conditions in the future. Furthermore the impact of increased cooling demand will change how building-based PV electricity yield is utilised.