Abstract
Flint River watershed is located in northern Alabama and southern Tennessee, USA and is home to several species of rare, threatened, or endangered plants and animals in a rapidly urbanizing area. Dominant land uses are forest and agricultural, with row crops and livestock production as major farm enterprises. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a deterministic hydrologic model that can predict hydrologic conditions over various temporal and spatial scales, was used to simulate the hydrologic response of the watershed to land-use/land cover (LULC) change. Analysis between observed and predicted stream flow demonstrated that the initial SWAT model run requires calibration of stream parameters in order to give a more accurate output from the model. The calibration was performed with sequential uncertainty fitting, ver. 2 (SUFI-2) in the SWAT Calibration Uncertainty Program. After calibration, stream sediment yield values were compared by sub-basin between a current (2001) and three future (2030) land use scenarios, in order to identify areas in the watershed that were the most susceptible to increased sediment yield in the future. The future growth scenarios (smart, plan and sprawl) were created using the ArcGIS extension, Prescott Spatial Growth Model. Sub-basins with the greatest sensitivity for larger sediment yields were identified and prioritized for conservation efforts.
Highlights
Land use/land cover (LULC) plays a vital role in water transport in the hydrologic cycle and primarily aids in reducing overland flows
This study examined future land use scenarios in the Flint River Watershed (FRW) relative to their impact on surface-water quality, e.g. discharge and sediment yield, using the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [16]
The hydrologic impact resulting from three future growth scenarios for the FRW was evaluated using SWAT, a deterministic hydrologic model that can predict hydrologic conditions over various temporal and spatial scales
Summary
Land use/land cover (LULC) plays a vital role in water transport in the hydrologic cycle and primarily aids in reducing overland flows. The hydrology of local watersheds can vary drastically and water quality as well as water flow patterns is often dependent on a combination of soil, LULC and elevation characteristics unique to the area. As forested area is lost and developed land expands it has shown to reduce base flow and/or an increase in soil erosion generally occurs [2]. As stated in the management plan, the primary issues of the watershed are uncontrolled urban sprawl and associated water quality and habitat degradation; hydrologic alteration of the river due to stormwater from increased impervious surfaces, water withdrawals, and other impacts including increased intensity and frequency of flooding and loss of base flows [4]. The plan has not been revised since May 2008 new research information on the FRW needs to be implemented to update the watershed management plan
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