Assessing the impact of hydrogen trade towards low-carbon energy transition

Abstract

Hydrogen is increasingly recognized as a pivotal commodity in the low-carbon energy transition, bridging regional disparities in hydrogen production capacity and facilitating international energy trade. Existing research has yet to delve into the impact of global hydrogen trade on energy transitions, as well as the key factors driving the development of hydrogen trade. This study, utilizing the updated GCAM-TU model, which mainly extends the original Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a hydrogen trade module, provides a multi-scenario outlook on the characteristics of hydrogen trade and its impact on global and regional energy transition. The findings indicate that by 2050, the global hydrogen trade volume is expected to reach 9-19EJ, accounting for a quarter of the global hydrogen consumption in different scenarios, with green hydrogen trade dominating due to its cost advantages. Pipeline hydrogen and ammonia shipping will govern the trade market, representing 33%–61% and 24%–64% of trade volume, respectively, while liquid hydrogen shipping holds an advantage for medium distances. Hydrogen trade is projected to increase global hydrogen demand by 1.2–5.3EJ and reduce hydrogen prices by 11%–36% in the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, thereby expanding their hydrogen consumption by 8%–55% and reducing regional carbon prices by 1%–6%. Moreover, hydrogen trade significantly alters the regional distribution of global hydrogen production, with major exporting regions such as North and East Africa increasing their hydrogen production for export by up to 150%. To facilitate the development of hydrogen and hydrogen trade, it is crucial for potential importing and exporting regions to enhance global financial and technological cooperation, develop key hydrogen production and transportation technologies, and retrofit existing nature gas infrastructure to reduce costs. Additionally, forming stable trade partnerships is essential for maintaining energy security in the hydrogen trade.