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Abstract
Humidex is a meteorological index that combines the impacts of temperature and humidity, and is directly comparable with dry temperature in degrees Celsius. However, to date, no research has focused on the effect of humidex on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). The current study was designed to address this research need. Case-based HFMD surveillance data and daily meteorological data collected between 2010 and 2012 was obtained from the China CDC and the National Meteorological Information Center, respectively. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to assess the impact of humidex on HFMD among children under 15 years oldin Guangdong, and its variability across social-economic status and age groups. We found that relative risk (RR) largely increased with humidex. Lag-specific and cumulative humidex-RR curves for children from the Pearl-River Delta Region as well as older children were more likely to show two-peak distribution patterns. One RR peak occurred at a humidex of between 15 and 20, and the other occurred between 30 and 35. This study provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of humidex on HFMD incidence in Guangdong Province. Results from the present study should be important in the development of area-and-age-targeted control programs.
Highlights
The assessment of the impacts of meteorological factors on HFMD is further complicated by several additional factors
There were in total 827,911 cases of HFMD under 15 years old reported to the casebased surveillance system (CBSS) during the period of 2010–2012 in Guangdong province (Table 1).The average provincial incidence during the study period was 26.26 cases per 10,000 persons
HFMD has been increasingly recognized as a public health priority, for children under 15 years old[9,16]
Summary
The assessment of the impacts of meteorological factors on HFMD is further complicated by several additional factors. Impacts of meteorological factors (i.e. humidex in this study) on HFMD may vary across different regions, no comparative studies have addressed this issue. Children of different age groups tend to be differentially susceptible and to have different life styles and social contacts. Their responses to meteorological conditions may be significantly different[20,21]. This study aimed to quantify the impact of humidex on childhood HFMD in Guangdong Province, China, from 2010 to 2012, and to assess its variability across social-economic status and age groups
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