Assessing the impact of historical and future climate change on potential natural vegetation types and net primary productivity in Australian grazing lands

Abstract

The study investigated the impact of historical and future climate changes on potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and net primary productivity (NPP) in Australia, using the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System model and the Miami model coupled with climate of the 1931–70 and 1971–2010 periods and the projected climate in 2050. Twenty-eight vegetation classes were classified based on the key climate indicators with four of them being the major vegetation classes corresponding to Australian rangelands and accounting for 75% of total land area. There was a substantial shift in areas of vegetation classes from the 1931–70 period to the 1971–2010 period due to the increased rainfall over large areas across Australia. The modelling projected a range of changes in vegetation classes for 2050 depending on the climate-change scenario used. Many vegetation classes with more intense land use (e.g. steppe and forest) were projected to decrease in 2050, which may have significant impact on the grazing industry and biodiversity conservation. By 2050, NPP was projected to increase in central and northern Australia and to decrease in southern and eastern coastal areas and was projected to be higher on average than that of the 1931–70 period. The vegetation classes approximately corresponding to Australian rangelands mostly had increased NPP projections compared with the 1931–70 period. Although actual response will partially depend on human management activities, fire and extreme events, the projected increase in average NPP in 2050 indicates that Australian vegetation, particularly the rangeland vegetation, will likely be a net carbon sink rather than a carbon source by 2050, with the exception of a ‘warm-dry’ scenario.