Abstract
Modern agricultural tools boost productivity across crops. Pepper, a lucrative cash crop, attracts global cultivation, bolstering yields. However, heightened productivity brings risks like price fluctuations and supply-demand imbalances, impacting the market's stability and success. Utilizing futures contracts is a common strategy to mitigate risks, yet the challenge lies in ensuring the availability of futures aligned with the specific commodity and contract size. In the Indian context, where pepper futures have been introduced and withdrawn multiple times, this study seeks to examine the impact of the presence or absence of pepper futures trading on pepper spot prices. Econometric techniques such as the Johansen cointegration test, VECM, Granger causality test, and ARIMA modeling were employed to analyze market integration and price autocorrelation. Findings indicate short-term cointegration between pepper spot and futures markets, striving for long-term equilibrium. Futures were found to influence the pepper spot market. ARIMA modeling recommended ARIMA(11,1,7) during futures presence and ARIMA(1,2,2) during absence for representing distinct periods.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
