Abstract
Abstract. The Azores are an active volcanic region that offers exceptional conditions for nature-based tourism, one of the main axes of economic growth in the archipelago. A future volcanic eruption may have long-term consequences to this economic sector. Therefore, it is fundamental to assess its vulnerability to volcanic hazards in order to try to mitigate the associated risk. This study proposes a new approach to assessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector. We considered two eruptive scenarios for Fogo volcano (São Miguel Island), the most probable (Volcanic Explosivity Index, VEI, 4 sub-Plinian eruption) and the worst-case (VEI 5 Plinian eruption), both producing tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. The results of numerical simulations were overlaid with tourism-related buildings and infrastructure of Vila Franca do Campo municipality to identify the elements at risk. The loss present value method was used to estimate the benefits generated by the accommodation units over 30 years for different economic scenarios. The assessment of the economic impact using 2018 indicators reveals that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is approximately EUR 145 million (considering a 2 % discount rate). This approach can also be applied to other volcanic regions, geologic hazards and economic sectors.
Highlights
Among all natural phenomena on Earth, explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the most destructive and can cause major socio-economic impacts
To calculate the economic loss in Vila Franca do Campo municipality due to future explosive eruptions, we considered three economic scenarios resulting from the numerical simulations: (1) destruction of accommodation buildings affected by ≥ 20 cm of tephra fallout from a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 4 sub-Plinian eruption during the summer period, (2) destruction of accommodation buildings located within the maximum potential extent of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) generated by a VEI 4 sub-Plinian eruption and (3) destruction of accommodation buildings located within the maximum potential extent of PDCs generated by a VEI 5 Plinian eruption
This study presents a new approach to quantifying the impact of explosive volcanic eruptions on the tourism industry
Summary
Among all natural phenomena on Earth, explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the most destructive and can cause major socio-economic impacts. Explosive eruptions can affect large areas of land, ocean and airspace, threatening people, animals, buildings, infrastructure, transportation, communications, agriculture land and water resources Despite the numerous hazards related to explosive volcanism, in several places volcanoes are regarded as attractions and not as a potential sources of problems. Nature-based tourism plays a significant role in the development of the local economy. The potential of some volcanoes to produce hazardous explosive eruptions is often overlooked or underestimated
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