Assessing the impact of Delta and Omicron in German intensive care units: a retrospective, nationwide multistate analysis

Abstract

BackgroundThe spread of several severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) has repeatedly led to increasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in German intensive care units (ICUs), resulting in capacity shortages and even transfers of COVID-19 intensive care patients between federal states in late 2021. In this respect, there is scarce evidence on the impact of predominant VOCs in German ICUs at the population level.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted from July 01, 2021, to May 31, 2022, using daily nationwide inpatient billing data from German hospitals on COVID-19 intensive care patients and SARS-CoV-2 sequence data from Germany. A multivariable Poisson regression analysis was performed to estimate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of transfer (to another hospital during inpatient care), discharge (alive) and death of COVID-19 intensive care patients associated with Delta or Omicron, adjusted for age group and sex. In addition, a multistate approach was used for the clinical trajectories of COVID-19 intensive care patients to estimate their competing risk of transfer, discharge or death associated with Delta or Omicron, specifically concerning patient age.ResultsA total of 6046 transfers, 33256 discharges, and 12114 deaths were included. Poisson regression analysis comparing Omicron versus Delta yielded an estimated adjusted IRR of 1.23 (95% CI 1.16–1.30) for transfers, 2.27 (95% CI 2.20–2.34) for discharges and 0.98 (95% CI 0.94–1.02) for deaths. For ICU deaths in particular, the estimated adjusted IRR increased from 0.14 (95% CI 0.08–0.22) for the 0–9 age group to 4.09 (95% CI 3.74–4.47) for those aged 90 and older compared to the reference group of 60-69-year-olds. Multistate analysis revealed that Omicron was associated with a higher estimated risk of discharge for COVID-19 intensive care patients across all ages, while Delta infection was associated with a higher estimated risk of transfer and death.ConclusionsRetrospective, nationwide comparisons of transfers, discharges and deaths of COVID-19 intensive care patients during Delta- and Omicron-dominated periods in Germany suggested overall less severe clinical trajectories associated with Omicron. Age was confirmed to be an important determinant of fatal clinical outcomes in COVID-19 intensive care patients, necessitating close therapeutic care for elderly people and appropriate public health control measures.