Assessing the impact of climate-driven water stress on agriculture growth of Pakistan

Abstract

This study was designed to investigate the role of changing climatic conditions on irrigation water security in Pakistan in order to quantify its implications for agricultural growth and, subsequently, the food security of the populace. Developing nations are highly vulnerable to climate crises, and Pakistan, in particular, is among the most vulnerable countries in this context. Over 60 percent of the population in Pakistan directly or indirectly depends on agriculture, which is extremely sensitive to the water stress triggered by escalating temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns. This study follows a quantitative approach, employing RStudio for mediation analysis where correlation, single-factor regression, and two-factor regression techniques were used to quantify the relation under study. The research findings revealed that the changing temperature and precipitation patterns have triggered an increase in water stress, negatively affecting agricultural growth to 13% from 1975 to 2019. This research is significant because it attempts to quantify the share of climatic changes in Pakistan's decreasing agricultural growth, elaborates on the country's current risks and mitigation potential, and puts forward policy recommendations to promote climate-resilient agricultural practices to facilitate adaptation to shifting climate regimes.