Assessing the impact of climate change on soil erosion in East Africa using a convection-permitting climate model

Abstract

East Africa is highly reliant on agriculture and has high rates of soil erosion which negatively impact agricultural yields. Climate projections suggest that rainfall intensity will increase in East Africa, which is likely to increase soil erosion. Soil erosion estimates require information on rainfall erosivity, which is calculated using sub-daily storm characteristics that are known to be biased in traditional parameterized convection climate models. Convection-permitting climate models, which are run at higher resolution to negate the need for convection parameterization, generally better represent rainfall intensity and frequency. We use a novel convection-permitting pan-Africa regional climate model (CP4A) to estimate rainfall erosivity in Tanzania and Malawi, and compare it to its parameterized counterpart (P25), to determine if there is a benefit to using convection-permitting climate models to look at rainfall erosivity. We use eight year historical and end-of-century (RCP8.5) climate simulations to examine the impact of climate change on soil erosion in Tanzania and Malawi based on rainfall erosivity estimates from CP4A and P25 applied to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. The effectiveness of soil conservation measures was also evaluated. Rainfall erosivity was lower in P25 than in CP4A and was a poorer match to observational storm characteristics, even after bias-correction. These results suggest that parameterized convection regional and global climate models might under-estimate rainfall erosivity, and the associated soil erosion. We found high values of present day erosion in mountainous regions in Tanzania and Malawi in CP4A. Under climate change, areas at high risk of soil erosion expanded due to increases in rainfall intensity in CP4A. Terracing was less effective at reducing soil erosion risk in the future than in the present day, and more extensive soil management may be required to manage soil erosion and reduce the negative impacts of soil erosion on agriculture.