Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Ning Shi,Yanqiang Wei,Jiali He,Yan Wu,Chunya Wang,Narayan Prasad Gaire,Niyati Naudiyal,Jinniu Wang

doi:10.3389/fpls.2021.830119

Abstract

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

Highlights

Climate plays a significant role in the growth and reproduction of plants, and governs factors concerning the survival, development, and distribution of species (Kozak et al, 2008; Wu et al, 2011; Ford and HilleRisLambers, 2019; Criado et al, 2020; Dolezal et al, 2020; Wang et al, 2021)
Soil type, temperature seasonality and precipitation of warmest quarter were observed to have a crucial role in estimating the potential distribution pattern of M. punicea
Habitat suitability of a species is influenced by environmental factors that play a key role in driving biological processes of the species growth, which is a critical aspect in modeling (Beaumont et al, 2005; Gavilán, 2005)

Summary

Introduction

Climate plays a significant role in the growth and reproduction of plants, and governs factors concerning the survival, development, and distribution of species (Kozak et al, 2008; Wu et al, 2011; Ford and HilleRisLambers, 2019; Criado et al, 2020; Dolezal et al, 2020; Wang et al, 2021). Detrimental influences of rapid climatic warming on global biodiversity include the changing the life history of species, community composition, vegetation pattern, and ecosystem function The frequency of extreme climate events has increased significantly in the past few decades, which could trigger a multitude of biophysical and economic impacts on the functioning of alpine ecosystems and their associated services (Wester et al, 2019). The most alarming direct evidence of climate change observed on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the past 35 years is the rapid early growth of alpine grassland vegetation, shortened optimal growth times, increased vegetation biomass in spring, and decreased vegetation biomass in autumn (Wang et al, 2020). Changes in grassland vegetation growth patterns directly affect the survival of millions of cattle and sheep, as well as a large number of ungulates, and the livelihoods of local pastoralists on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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Conclusion