Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in Houston, Texas

Abstract

The objective of this research is to utilize a computational model for assessing the impact ofclimate change on tropical cyclones in the Houston, Texas area. In recent years, it has beenobserved that tropical cyclones have become more destructive, increasing in intensity andfrequency. The current body of knowledge on tropical cyclones has indicated the significant rolethat climate change plays in the worsening of tropical cyclones. This research focused onstudying the characteristics of tropical cyclones potentially affected by climate change in theHouston, Texas area, stemming from the researcher’s firsthand experience of Hurricane Harveywhich occurred in August of 2017. Nine global climate models were studied and incorporatedinto a MATLAB computational program in this research to generate a total of 9,000 synthetictropical cyclones with and without climate change for comparison purposes. The variouscharacteristics of tropical cyclones were analyzed based on the output of the MATLAB program.A comparison of these characteristics yielded the conclusion that climate change plays a key rolein increasing the likelihood of destructive characteristics of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it islikely that future tropical cyclones in the Houston, Texas area will demonstrate an increased riskseverity, causing more harm to people and more damage to local society. It is highlyrecommended that future research should focus on mitigation strategies for the Houston, Texasarea to reduce the consequence of tropical cyclones and prevent the situation of HurricaneHarvey from reoccurring.