Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production Using Crop Simulation Model

Abstract

Climate change can have significant impacts on agriculture, both in terms of crop production and livestock management. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events such as droughts and floods can reduce crop yields. GCMs have been used to predict climate scenarios and impacts in many cases using the downscaling approach. Crop simulation models are crucial in gaining valuable insights into the intricate interactions between crops and their surroundings. To combat against climate change, researchers have discovered that implementing microclimatic modifications and conducting sensitivity analyses of crop simulation models are effective strategies. In short, these approaches can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on agricultural production by simulating diverse scenarios and predicting the impacts of varying environmental conditions, such as temperature, rainfall, and soil conditions. The resulting information enables assisting farmers in making wise choices about the best times to plant, fertilize, irrigate, harvest, and manage their crops, especially in the context of a changing climate. Moreover, crop simulation models that account for climate change factors can quantify the effect of climate change on crop production, and prioritize and evaluate adaptation measures at the farm level. As a result, Crop simulation modeling has the potential to revolutionize agriculture, leading it towards achieving the goals of sustainability.