Assessing the impact of climate and air quality policies on future emissions in Korea through quantification of control and co-control effects

Abstract

Climate policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can also lead to reduced air pollutants, and conversely, air pollution reduction policies can contribute to GHG reductions. We defined "control" as achieving key policy goals and "co-control" as achieving additional goals simultaneously. This study quantitatively analyzed the effects of Korea's Climate and air pollutant reduction policies using the GHGs and air pollutant Unified Information Design system for Environment (GUIDE) model, which facilitates an integrated analysis of the control and co-control effects of these policies. We incorporated the latest policies in Korea into the model and developed four scenarios to generate and evaluate future emission inventories for each scenario until 2030. The four scenarios include the baseline scenario (no additional policy), the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario (climate policies), the Air Quality Management (AQM) scenario (air quality policies), and the NDC+AQM scenario (both policies). The analysis results from the NDC and the NDC+AQM scenarios present the reduction effects of CO2 emissions due to climate policies and illustrate the co-control effects that reduce atmospheric pollutants such as SOx, NOx, and PM2.5 as well. Moreover, through a comparative analysis of emission reduction outcomes across the four scenarios, this study shows the advantages of concurrently evaluating climate and air quality policies using the integrated model. Furthermore, by assessing the effects of policies within each emission sector, we can identify sections necessitating supplementary reduction strategies. The findings presented in this research offer valuable insights and data to inform forthcoming policy development and assessment endeavors.