Abstract
Since the turn of the century, the global community has made great progress towards the elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). Elimination programs, primarily relying on screening and treatment campaigns, have also created a rich database of HAT epidemiology. Mathematical models calibrated with these data can help to fill remaining gaps in our understanding of HAT transmission dynamics, including key operational research questions such as whether integrating vector control with current intervention strategies is needed to achieve HAT elimination. Here we explore, via an ensemble of models and simulation studies, how including or not disease stage data, or using more updated data sets affect model predictions of future control strategies.
Highlights
Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is a neglected tropical disease that affects people in resource-limited settings in sub-Saharan Africa, with more than 65 million people living at risk [1]
Our results suggest that enhanced passive detection could not be sufficient to achieve short-term reduction goals, its associated sustained effect on reducing transmission, projected by all models, indicates this strategy should be considered for areas in Bandundu where past activities did not reduce HAT transmission as expected
We investigated the role of the type and level of aggregation of epidemiological data on recommended control strategy by analysing publicly available HAT case data using four different mathematical models
Summary
Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is a neglected tropical disease that affects people in resource-limited settings in sub-Saharan Africa, with more than 65 million people living at risk [1]. HAT is caused by a protozoan parasite and is transmitted between humans by biting tsetse flies. The gambiense form of the disease, caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, is responsible for over 95% of human cases. This chronic disease progresses through two stages. The first stage can last for several years with relatively minor symptoms such as fever and headaches. Available treatments are stage-dependent and so assessment of a patient’s stage—by analysing the cerebrospinal fluid for parasites and number of white blood cells—is a prerequisite for appropriate treatment
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
