Abstract
Abstract. This paper presents an advanced approach to statistically analyse storm surge events. In former studies the highest water level during a storm surge event usually was the only parameter that was used for the statistical assessment. This is not always sufficient, especially when statistically analysing storm surge scenarios for event-based risk analyses. Here, Archimedean Copula functions are applied and allow for the consideration of further important parameters in addition to the highest storm surge water levels. First, a bivariate model is presented and used to estimate exceedance probabilities of storm surges (for two tide gauges in the German Bight) by jointly analysing the important storm surge parameters "highest turning point" and "intensity". Second, another dimension is added and a trivariate fully nested Archimedean Copula model is applied to additionally incorporate the significant wave height as an important wave parameter. With the presented methodology, reliable and realistic exceedance probabilities are derived and can be considered (among others) for integrated flood risk analyses contributing to improve the overall results. It is highlighted that the concept of Copulas represents a promising alternative for facing multivariate problems in coastal engineering.
Highlights
Scenario- or event-based flood risk analyses in coastal areas are often performed by following the so-called SourcePathway-Receptor-Concept (e.g. Oumeraci, 2004)
The latter may coincide with the high storm surge water levels and play an important role for some investigation areas, while they can be neglected for others
Many of the bivariate models available from literature suffer from restrictions and constraints regarding the underlying data sets in terms of the dependence or the marginal distributions
Summary
Scenario- or event-based flood risk analyses in coastal areas are often performed by following the so-called SourcePathway-Receptor-Concept (e.g. Oumeraci, 2004). T. Wahl et al.: Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas study, Ruocco et al (2011) first ranked flood events that occurred along the south coast of the UK (Southampton and Portsmouth) by looking at the storm surge water levels. Wahl et al.: Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas study, Ruocco et al (2011) first ranked flood events that occurred along the south coast of the UK (Southampton and Portsmouth) by looking at the storm surge water levels They reconstructed coastal flooding based on the information from media sources (first of all newspapers). This has to be taken into account for the trivariate statistical analyses
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