Assessing the feasibility of deployment policies in wind energy systems. A sensitivity analysis on a multiequational econometric framework

Abstract

The fight against climate change will require the uptake of renewable energy technologies, including wind. However, as with any technological system, whether such deployment will effectively occur depends on the interactions of many variables, whose levels are subject to uncertainty. Therefore, identifying the set of technical, economic and political relationships that characterise the operation of wind generation systems is both an academic and a policy relevant objective. This article proposes a methodology which integrates an econometric model of simultaneous equations with a mathematical optimisation model in order to assess the feasibility of policies under different wind deployment scenarios considered by policy-makers, given the network of technical, economic and political relationships which define the functioning of a sector in a given country. In addition, this methodology quantifies the relevance of the role that each relationship among the variables of the system plays in order to comply with the targets and identifies the key relationships of the system. The method is illustrated with an application to the case of Spain, and the results stress the relevance of several variables and relationships which characterise the whole system. • Identification of the set of technical, economic and political relationships in wind generation systems. • A methodology to assess the feasibility of policies under different wind deployment scenarios. • Quantification of the relevance of the role that each relationship among the variables of the system plays. • An econometric model of simultaneous equations is combined with a mathematical optimisation model. • The method is illustrated with an application to the case of Spain.