Abstract
Suppression of dengue and malaria through releases of genetically engineered mosquitoes might soon become feasible. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes carrying a conditionally lethal transgene have recently been used to suppress local vector populations in small-scale field releases. Prior to releases of transgenic insects on a wider scale, however, most regulatory authorities will require additional evidence that suppression will be effective in natural heterogeneous habitats. We use a spatially explicit stochastic model of an Ae. aegypti population in Iquitos, Peru, along with an uncertainty analysis of its predictions, to quantitatively assess the outcome of varied operational approaches for releases of transgenic strains with conditional death of females. We show that population elimination might be an unrealistic objective in heterogeneous populations. We demonstrate that substantial suppression can nonetheless be achieved if releases are deployed in a uniform spatial pattern using strains combining multiple lethal elements, illustrating the importance of detailed spatial models for guiding genetic mosquito control strategies.
Highlights
Application of transgenic strategies to manipulate mosquito species that transmit malaria and dengue has attracted considerable scientific and media attention [1,2,3]
Genetically-modified mosquitoes could be used for two main strategic purposes: population suppression or population replacement
Because strategies for releasing transgenic mosquitoes into large, heterogeneous populations cannot be investigated with general models that make simplifying assumptions regarding the structure and dynamics of the target population, we developed the Skeeter Buster model [16], a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Ae. aegypti populations, with the specific objective of examining the merits of different approaches for dengue prevention, in heterogeneous environments
Summary
Application of transgenic strategies to manipulate mosquito species that transmit malaria and dengue has attracted considerable scientific and media attention [1,2,3]. Approaches aimed strictly at population suppression offer a favorable profile with regard to some environmental risks because the transgenes are predicted to be lost from populations after releases are ended [4], whereas population replacement strains that include self-propagating genetic elements face concerns associated with design features enabling them to persist in the environment [5,6]. Unlike malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases, dengue has only one major vector species, Aedes aegypti. Ae. aegypti, in addition, is easier to rear and genetically engineer than malaria vectors. This species has become an important target for new genetic approaches for vector control
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