Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission.

Hyun M Yang,Marcelo U Ferreira

doi:10.1590/s0034-89102000000300002

Abstract

To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Highlights

IntroductionThere has recently been a growing interest on the effects of global warming on the epidemiology of malaria and other vector-borne diseases.[11,13] Due to the “greenhouse effect”, the global annual average temperature at the surface of the Earth is expected to increase between 1.0 to 3.5°C by the year 2100
Based on the mathematical model developed by Yang[16] to describe quantitatively the overall picture of malaria transmission, the possible effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the epidemiology of malaria were assessed.There has recently been a growing interest on the effects of global warming on the epidemiology of malaria and other vector-borne diseases.[11,13] Due to the “greenhouse effect”, the global annual average temperature at the surface of the Earth is expected to increase between 1.0 to 3.5°C by the year 2100
Higher ambient temperatures within the range of 20-31°C affect malaria transmission in several ways: (a) development of Anopheles is shortened; (b) biting capacity of female mosquitoes is increased since their gonadotrophic cycle is shortened; and (c) the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium decreases logarithmically

Summary

Introduction

There has recently been a growing interest on the effects of global warming on the epidemiology of malaria and other vector-borne diseases.[11,13] Due to the “greenhouse effect”, the global annual average temperature at the surface of the Earth is expected to increase between 1.0 to 3.5°C by the year 2100. The impact of global warming is currently considered by the World Health Organization as one of the greatest public health challenges for the century.[11] Higher ambient temperatures within the range of 20-31°C affect malaria transmission in several ways: (a) development of Anopheles is shortened; (b) biting capacity of female mosquitoes is increased since their gonadotrophic cycle (interval between bloodmeals) is shortened; and (c) the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium decreases logarithmically. Small increases in temperature can result in large increases in the vectorial capacity of mosquitoes, defined as the daily potential number of inoculations originated in an infectious person.[8]

Methods

Results

Conclusion