ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE OIL TRUNK PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT: A SCENARIO APPROACH

Abstract

The article is devoted to the development of a scenario approach in assessing the effectiveness of a main oil pipeline construction project. A pressing issue is the formation of an integrated approach to assessing the effectiveness of the oil trunk pipeline construction project, in connection with the impact of various types of risks and uncertainties of the external environment (technical, economic, environmental). Based on this, a particularly important aspect is to study the impact of these various risks on the project and take into account the scenario approach in this (taking into account both the pessimistic scenario and the optimistic scenario for project implementation), which will improve the efficiency of the entire oil trunk pipeline construction project. The methodology proposed by the author, used when assessing the effectiveness of a main oil pipeline construction project, allows us to take into account the predictable uncertainty of the project's effectiveness. Unified integral indicators of the economic effect of the project for all three scenarios were developed on the basis of standardized indicators and their weighted significance. The most effective project for implementation has been identified, taking into account three scenarios, which, depending on one of the three implementation scenarios, will provide the best values of project performance indicators: net present value, profitability index, internal rate of return and payback period.