Abstract
Anti-smoking media campaign is an effective tobacco control strategy. How to identify what types of advertising messages are effective is important for maximizing the use of limited funding sources for such campaigns. In this paper, we propose a statistical modeling approach for systematically assessing the effectiveness of anti-smoking media campaigns based on ad recall rates and rating scores. This research is motivated by the need for evaluating youth responses to the Massachusetts Tobacco Control Program (MTCP) media campaign. Pattern-mixture GEE models are pro posed to evaluate the impact of viewer and ads characteristics on ad recall rates and rating scores controlling for missing values, confounding and cor relations in the data. A key difficulty for pattern-mixture modeling is that there were too many distinct missing data patterns which cause convergence problem for modeling fitting based on limited data. A heuristic argument based on collapsing missing data patterns is used to test the missing com pletely at random (MCAR) assumption in pattern-mixture GEE models. The proposed modeling approach and the recall-rating study design pro vide a complete system for identifying the most effective type of advertising messages.
Highlights
1.1 Anti-smoking media campaignsAnti-smoking mass media campaign has been shown to significantly reduce the progression to regular smoking among both adults and adolescents, Flynn et al (1992, 1994, 1995), Hu et al (1995), Popham et al (1995), Siegel et al (1998, 2000) and Worden et al (1996)
Keeler and Nyman (2000), Biener (2000) and Biener, Ming, Gilpin, and Alber (2004) presented data from in the Massachusetts Tobacco Control Program (MTCP) on the adult and youth response to eight different TV ads which were preclassified into three categories: sad, normative and funny
We have presented a statistical modeling approach to evaluate the effectiveness of anti-smoking media campaigns according to market penetration and perceived effectiveness of the ads as measured by ad recall and rating
Summary
1.1 Anti-smoking media campaignsAnti-smoking mass media campaign has been shown to significantly reduce the progression to regular smoking among both adults and adolescents, Flynn et al (1992, 1994, 1995), Hu et al (1995), Popham et al (1995), Siegel et al (1998, 2000) and Worden et al (1996). Many previous studies emphasize the behavioral changing effect of media campaigns on smoking initiation or cessation Another type of evaluation studies focus on the advertising effectiveness by assessing the relationship between ad characteristics and responses from the target audience. Biener, Keeler and Nyman (2000), Biener (2000) and Biener, Ming, Gilpin, and Alber (2004) presented data from in the Massachusetts Tobacco Control Program (MTCP) on the adult and youth response to eight different TV ads which were preclassified into three categories: sad, normative and funny Their analysis concluded that the sad ads which evoke strong negative emotions had the highest recall rates and rating scores. This paper was motivated by the MTCP data analysis for developing a general statistical modeling approach for assessing anti-smoking media campaigns using recall and rating scores
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