Assessing the effect of recovery programs for salmon (Salmo salar Linnaeus, 1758) at its Southern limit in Europe: application of segmented regression models to long-term data from the Ulla River

Abstract

The abundance of Atlantic salmon in Europe has declined throughout its native range. One of the main causes is low marine survival, which has been mainly attributed to overexploitation at sea, but global warming, decreased zooplankton abundance in the North Atlantic and local changes in freshwater conditions have been also blamed. It has been also pointed out that Southern populations experience the greatest decline, but information from these areas in Europe is scarce, and also in Spain there are few long-term data series related with the salmon recovery programs carried out. In this paper, we analyse a long-term data set (1992-2018) provided by a fish-trap located in the Ulla River (Galicia, NW Spain), at the southern limit of the salmon distribution range. Salmon restocking programs have been carried out in this river from 2000, and although this management technique is widely accepted, it is necessary to document the fate of those individuals to evaluate their success. Segmented regression models (or piecewise regression) are applied here for the first time to estimate the value of the explanatory variable (the so called break-point) which can indicate the potential success of the recovery program in this river. Data analysis suggest a gradual population increase to the early 1990s, then remained relatively stable until 2007 and increased thereafter due to an increase in the number of wild salmon entering the river. An increase in the frequency of appearance of 3SW salmon since 2009 was detected, both including previous spawners and individuals at its first spawning migration after three consecutive winters at sea. Data suggest an increase in number of wild salmon entering the river. Restoring river connectivity has also helped to enhance this population. We finally consider that the increase in the number of returning salmons in the Ulla River achieved over this period is due not only to the good management and conservation practices related to salmon stocking, but also to the connectivity restoration in the river and to a higher marine survival rate.