Abstract
The change in land use during the process of urbanization affects surface runoff and increases flood risk in big cities. This study investigated the impact of land use change on surface runoff in Beijing’s central area during the period of rapid urbanization from 1984 to 2019. Land use maps of 1984, 1999, 2009, and 2019 were generated by image classification of Landsat images. Surface runoffs were calculated with the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) model. Correlation analysis was used to identify the dominant factor of land use change affecting surface runoff. The result showed that the variation trend of surface runoff was consistent with the trend of impervious land in Beijing’s central area, which increased during 1984~2009 and decreased during 2009~2019. Correlation analysis showed that changes in surface runoff were most strongly correlated with changes in impervious surfaces when compared with the correlation of runoff with other types of land use. The results of this study may provide a reference for city flood control and urban planning in fast growing cities worldwide, especially in developing countries.
Highlights
Urbanization is the inevitable trend of the development of the world today
Correlation analysis showed that changes in surface runoff were most strongly correlated with changes in impervious surfaces when compared with the correlation of runoff with other types of land use
Quantitative assessment of the impact of urbanization on surface runoff is essential for urban planning, water resources management, and for early flood warning in big cities
Summary
Urbanization is the inevitable trend of the development of the world today. It has been estimated that about 64% of developing countries and 86% of developed countries will be urbanized by 2050 [1,2].In the process of urbanization, large amounts of agricultural or other non-urban land are transformed into impervious land and the land use change totally alters natural hydrological processes [3,4].Several studies investigated the effects of urbanization-induced land use changes on runoff. The rapid expansion of urban impervious area increased surface runoff yield amount [5,6], peak discharge [7,8], and runoff ratio [9,10], reduced runoff response time [11,12], and changed hydrological regimes [12,13,14]. It changed the long-term groundwater recharge [15,16] and water balance [17,18]. Quantitative assessment of the impact of urbanization on surface runoff is essential for urban planning, water resources management, and for early flood warning in big cities
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