Assessing the economic viability of BESS in distributed PV generation on public buildings in Brazil: A 2030 outlook

Abstract

This paper proposes a method to assess the financial attractiveness provided by adding a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation on public buildings in Brazil. The method is applicable to prosumer units (PU) connected on the medium voltage grid operating under time-based electricity tariffs. The BESS primary objective was to achieve optimal reductions in electric energy expenses through effective energy arbitrage mechanisms. The procedural steps of the methodology begin with an analysis encompassing assessment of solar resource, PU consumption profile, and BESS sizing and operation. Subsequently, steps entail contracted power optimization, PU net-metering analysis, and evaluation of BESS impacts on electric energy expenses. Lastly, a regulatory and economic analysis is conducted incorporation considerations on BESS taxation, behind-the-meter regulations, and a sensitivity assessment extending to the 2030 outlook. By 2050, it is anticipated that PV generation will surpass hydropower, becoming the predominant component of Brazil's energy mix. This shift is expected to create an increased need for solutions, notably storage systems, capable of meeting flexibility requirements and maintaining grid resilience. The results suggest that the financial viability of incorporating BESS becomes favourable when the battery cost is below 365 $/kWh. In approximately 50% of the Brazilian territory, prevailing economic conditions support the adoption of BESS. Nationwide feasibility of integration is anticipated for the year 2027. It was observed that government policies to exempt BESS taxation, even if temporary, would be extremely interesting to promote the widespread adoption of this technology. The 2030 outlook of the transition to these benign renewable energy technologies is already in place, and will dominate the energy mix.