Assessing the Economic Costs of Sea Level Rise and Benefits of Coastal Protection: A Spatiotemporal Approach

Xinyu Fu,Jie Song

doi:10.3390/su9081495

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) is believed to be the most dangerous impact of climate change in coastal regions. Adapting to its impacts has become imperative since SLR is now considered inevitable. Lack of local economic analysis of SLR impacts is one of the major obstacles impeding adaptation. To address this gap, this study employs a spatiotemporal approach to estimate the economic costs of future SLR as well as the benefits of coastal protection, a principal adaptation strategy, under four local SLR projection scenarios in the mainland Miami-Dade County, Florida. Our findings indicate that SLR impacts are nonlinear and coastal protection, while costly, can significantly reduce future potential losses. A novel spatial fishnet approach is also proposed to help local decision makers identify areas that should be prioritized for protection. Findings of this study aim to support local adaptation planning, and call for integrating adaptation for SLR and its uncertainties into local planning frameworks to achieve long-term sustainability and well-being of our precious coastal communities.

Highlights

The coast is on the frontier of natural and anthropogenic stressors [1]
This paper aims to conduct a case study by employing a spatiotemporal approach to analyze the economic impacts due to future sea level rise (SLR) and a spatial fishnet method to identify areas that should be prioritized for adaptation actions
While the large uncertainty of future SLR greatly hinders the progress of adaptation at local levels, understanding the local impacts of SLR by scenario planning and establishing a planning time frame for future SLR become essential steps towards adaptation decisions

Summary

Introduction

The coast is on the frontier of natural and anthropogenic stressors [1]. Coastal regions are exceptionally sensitive because of their densely populated and highly developed characteristics [2]. Climate change impacts, especially sea level rise (SLR), add another layer of intensity to these already highly exposed areas [4] Coastal regions and their managers face escalating challenges in safely accommodating growth and development [5]. The absence of practical tools to analyze SLR impacts are believed to significantly hinder local adaptation decisions Those that estimate the economic losses from SLR at the community levels are scarce. As adaptation needs to compete for the limited local resources, identifying where adaptation should be prioritized provides important practical meanings To address these gaps, this paper aims to conduct a case study by employing a spatiotemporal approach to analyze the economic impacts due to future SLR and a spatial fishnet method to identify areas that should be prioritized for adaptation actions. Coastal planners and managers who are concerned with SLR impacts would find this study useful in guiding local long-range adaptation planning

Study Area

Limitations and Future

Conclusions

32. A Global Vulnerability Analysis