Assessing the ecological feasibility of reintroducing the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to southern Scotland, England and Wales

Abstract

Reintroductions of top predators are crucial for restoring ecosystems and are a central tenet of rewilding efforts. In recent years, top predators such as the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) have increased in numbers and expanded into their former range across Europe. A proposal for conducting a trial reintroduction of the Eurasian lynx in England has recently been rejected by the UK government. Lynx could provide ecological benefits; primarily a natural control on deer numbers. Whilst in-depth feasibility studies have been undertaken for Scotland, no detailed assessment of the ecological feasibility of a lynx reintroduction has been produced for the rest of Britain. This study seeks to provide an initial assessment of the ecological feasibility of a reintroduction in southern Scotland, England and Wales by; (1) quantifying the suitable habitat using GIS software, (2) assessing habitat connectivity using GIS-based least cost path (LCP) techniques, (3) quantifying the potential number of lynx that could be supported, using estimated deer densities, and (4) assessing population viability using PVA software. This study identified 11,369 km2 of suitable habitat, split across eight habitat networks. This habitat could potentially support an estimated 256 lynx. The largest habitat network (3918 km2) is located in the Southern Uplands of Scotland and Kielder Forest of England, however the second largest habitat network in the Southeast of England could host the largest lynx population (107). Three subpopulations (Southern Uplands and Kielder Forest, Southeast England and Thetford Forest) have extinction probabilities under 10% in at least one of the three PVA scenarios modelled.