Abstract
Decarbonisation of existing infrastructure systems requires a dynamic roll-out of technology at an unprecedented scale. The potential disruption in supply of critical materials could endanger such a transition to low-carbon infrastructure and, by extension, compromise energy security more broadly because low carbon technologies are reliant on these materials in a way that fossil-fuelled energy infrastructure is not. Criticality is currently defined as the combination of the potential for supply disruption and the exposure of a system of interest to that disruption. We build on this definition and develop a dynamic approach to quantifying criticality, which monitors the change in criticality during the transition towards a low-carbon infrastructure goal. This allows us to assess the relative risk of different technology pathways to reach a particular goal and reduce the probability of being ‘locked in’ to currently attractive but potentially future-critical technologies. To demonstrate, we apply our method to criticality of the proposed UK electricity system transition, with a focus on neodymium. We anticipate that the supply disruption potential of neodymium will decrease by almost 30% by 2050; however, our results show the criticality of low carbon electricity production increases ninefold over this period, as a result of increasing exposure to neodymium-reliant technologies.
Highlights
Emissions reductions of the magnitude required to meet the challenging targets set by international and national bodies [1,2] will require rapid and systemic change to physical infrastructure, especially energy systems
We recognise that this is only a first approximation as we need to take into account the fact that almost all significant technologies are exposed to criticality via multiple materials and that individual critical elements are essential to the operation of multiple technologies
In this article we present an assessment method to analyse whether disruption in the supply chain of a critical material could impede strategic infrastructure transitions and compromise energy security
Summary
Emissions reductions of the magnitude required to meet the challenging targets set by international and national bodies [1,2] will require rapid and systemic change to physical infrastructure, especially energy systems This will require a step-change in both the scale and rate of the roll out of low carbon technologies such as wind turbines, solar panels and hybrid and electric vehicles. The European Commission defines critical materials as those at risk of supply disruption and which are difficult to substitute [6] If supply of these materials is disrupted, there will be a corresponding constraint on the rate at which such technologies can be manufactured and commissioned.
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