Assessing the drivers of energy supply and demand in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Ensuring reliable and sustainable energy access in sub-Saharan Africa requires exploring alternatives to traditional biomass and fossil fuels, crucial for overcoming challenges related to limited electricity and clean cooking energy access. Within this background and to assess the factors affecting energy supply and energy consumption, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) was applied across 48 sub-Saharan countries and adapted to the regional context considering energy access indicators.Key results showed that economic activity significantly influences both supply and demand growth. However, this growth is restricted by outdated infrastructure, resulting in inefficiencies and increased conversion losses. Policymakers thus face a dual challenge of promoting economic growth while modernizing energy infrastructure to sustain development.Moreover, targeted policies are essential, particularly in energy-intensive in energy-intensive sectors like wholesale and retail, while advocating for a comprehensive approach in the residential sector. This approach involves socioeconomic considerations, energy access enhancement, and the promotion of energy-efficient and renewable technologies to meet rising demand amid population growth and evolving consumption patterns.Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of enhancing both energy access levels and energy efficiency in the residential sector. Unlike the industrial sector, energy intensity is crucial for improving efficiency without compromising the level of access. Enhancing energy efficiency can significantly reduce energy consumption in households, which is important given the high reliance on energy-intensive practices such as cooking with traditional biomass.