Assessing the Drivers of Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Time-Series Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment and Oil Price Effects

Abstract

This research looks at the factors that drive Pakistan's economic growth, with a particular emphasis on the influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) and oil prices. Using data from 1998 to 2022, the study applies the Auto Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the link between FDI, oil prices, and economic growth. The empirical findings show that FDI has a beneficial impact on economic growth, highlighting its importance as a driver for economic development in Pakistan. In contrast, the study finds that rising oil prices harm economic growth, emphasizing the negative effects of oil price volatility. Considering these findings, the study underlines the need for policies that encourage FDI inflows and industrialization to drive economic growth. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of government involvement to mitigate the negative effects of rising oil costs, since unchecked rises might stymie economic progress. Understanding the determinants of economic growth in Pakistan is critical for both policymakers and investors. FDI is critical for increasing productivity and creating jobs, yet oil price volatility can have a substantial influence on the country's macroeconomic stability and growth trajectory. Analyzing their effects gives useful insights for long-term economic growth initiatives. Overall, the study suggests a dual strategy for Pakistani policymakers: create a climate conducive to attracting FDI while taking steps to reduce the negative consequences of unpredictable oil prices. By prioritizing these policies, Pakistan may accelerate its economic growth and protect itself from foreign economic shocks.