Assessing the Distribution of Air Pollution Health Risks within Cities: A Neighborhood-Scale Analysis Leveraging High-Resolution Data Sets in the Bay Area, California.

Abstract

Background:Air pollution-attributable disease burdens reported at global, country, state, or county levels mask potential smaller-scale geographic heterogeneity driven by variation in pollution levels and disease rates. Capturing within-city variation in air pollution health impacts is now possible with high-resolution pollutant concentrations.Objectives:We quantified neighborhood-level variation in air pollution health risks, comparing results from highly spatially resolved pollutant and disease rate data sets available for the Bay Area, California.Methods:We estimated mortality and morbidity attributable to nitrogen dioxide (), black carbon (BC), and fine particulate matter [PM in aerodynamic diameter ()] using epidemiologically derived health impact functions. We compared geographic distributions of pollution-attributable risk estimates using concentrations from a) mobile monitoring of and BC; and b) models predicting annual , BC and concentrations from land-use variables and satellite observations. We also compared results using county vs. census block group (CBG) disease rates.Results:Estimated pollution-attributable deaths per 100,000 people at the grid-cell level ranged across the Bay Area by a factor of 38, 4, and 5 for [ (95% CI: 9, 50)], BC [ (95% CI: 1, 2)], and , [ (95% CI: 33, 64)]. Applying concentrations from mobile monitoring and land-use regression (LUR) models in Oakland neighborhoods yielded similar spatial patterns of estimated grid-cell–level mortality rates. Mobile monitoring concentrations captured more heterogeneity [mobile monitoring (95% CI: 19, 107) deaths per 100,000 people; (95% CI: 30, 167)]. Using CBG-level disease rates instead of county-level disease rates resulted in 15% larger attributable mortality rates for both and , with more spatial heterogeneity at the grid-cell–level [ CBG deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 12, 68); (95% CI: 11, 64); (95% CI: 40, 77); and (95% CI: 37, 71)].Discussion:Air pollutant-attributable health burdens varied substantially between neighborhoods, driven by spatial variation in pollutant concentrations and disease rates. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7679