Assessing the disparities of the population exposed to flood hazards in Nigeria

Abstract

The increased frequency and intensity of flooding and related disasters result from changing climatic conditions and other socio-economic factors. As flooding can be highly destructive and negatively impact human lives, this study attempts to estimate the population, capital stock and disparities in exposure to flooding hazards in Nigeria using GIS and Statistical methodologies. First, the study assessed the spatial distribution of the population and capital stock exposed to flood by utilising population and socio-economic datasets. Then, the distribution of the vulnerable groups affected is estimated by superimposing the population and socio-economic datasets onto the flood hazard maps. The results show that approximately 24.7 million (8.3%) of Nigeria’s Population were exposed to floods in 2015. Most exposed groups were primarily in urban areas irrespective of the income class. Additionally, the clusters of communities within the high-risk flood hazard zones had significantly increased, evident in the number of residents exposed to flood within the 15 years (2000-2015) growing exponentially. These findings further highlight a disturbing state of localities where people are generally less responsive to climate change and natural hazards. Overall, this study provides essential information for disaster risk management and policy formation at different levels of administration and identifies areas where varied and informal strategies are needed to mitigate flood risk and climate change in regions with diverse socio-economic conditions. In addition, this study provides empirical proof of the socio-economic disparities associated with flood exposure in Nigeria and presents valuable insights into the underlying factors.