Assessing the Cost of Friction between NATO Allies

Oysseus Katsaitis,George Zombanakis

doi:10.35467/sdq/143276

Abstract

This paper proposes a method for assessing the cost of friction between North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies and highlights internal threats. This is applied to the Greek–Turkish conflict within the NATO context and concerns the functioning of defence expenditure in Greece, modified in such a way as to focus on the causes of friction between these allies. The analysis concentrates mainly on the issue of internal threats to the long-run equilibrium of NATO. The ARDL methodology used modifies the typical error correction model by introducing a mechanism that accelerates the process that leads back to the long-run equilibrium. Along with assessing the cost to an ally in relation to an internal threat, the method proposed allows the time required for the long-run equilibrium of NATO to be restored. The paper concludes that dynamic incidents of friction between allies expressed as an internal threat disturb NATO’s static equilibrium, destabilise an individual ally’s defence policy and contribute to cost being incurred.

Highlights

The recent literature on North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) cohesion is dominated by contributions which try to tackle the role of the alliance following the end of the Cold War
This is approximated using the daily engagements of the Hellenic Air Force (HAF) fighters against the corresponding Türk Hava Kuvvetleri (THK) when attempting a violation of the Greek airspace as the Greek side considers it
We have modified the traditional defence spending function for Greece as it appears in the literature, in order to provide a dynamic dimension to its long-run static Nash equilibrium environment

Summary

Introduction

The recent literature on North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) cohesion is dominated by contributions which try to tackle the role of the alliance following the end of the Cold War. 507; Sandler and Hartley, 1999, p. The question that arises, though, is the extent to which NATO can function when facing such challenges as the ones mentioned in such contributions, before settling various open issues in its own back yard which lead to friction between its members and threaten its cohesion. Most sources consider the beginning of this conflict to be in 1974 with the Cyprus crisis, its roots date back even earlier to the start of the 1950s. This issue has developed into a popular topic in the literature as it has grown to represent a typical arms race case This issue has developed into a popular topic in the literature as it has grown to represent a typical arms race case (Andreou and Zombanakis, 2006, pp. 1–18)

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Conclusion