Assessing the compound flood risk in coastal areas: Framework formulation and demonstration

Abstract

Storm surge and river runoff can result in compound flooding in coastal areas. The impact of these events can be more significant than that generated by each component individually. This paper describes a framework for characterizing flooding during compound events and quantifying the relative importance of surge and river flows in controlling inundation depth (ID). For the analysis, we considered 1051 simulations of historical flood events covering about 40 years in Connecticut (CT), USA, and several simulated storms associated with synthetic climate scenarios. We simulated river discharge time series for each event using a physically based distributed hydrological model and retrieved the storm surge from tidal stations. These time series are used as upstream and downstream boundary conditions in 2D hydrodynamic simulation. We focused the analysis on seven locations along the coast of Connecticut covered by LiDAR-derived 1 m DEM. To capture the variability of inundation characteristics over the full-scale gradient from river to coast, we introduced a new topographic index, D-Index, that distinguishes topologic variabilities. Results from this study highlight that there is a correlation of ID to different drivers in distinct categories of the D-Index, which can correctly label the main source of hazard, either coast, river, or compound. We identified thresholds of standard deviation (σ) of the D-Index to identify areas where ID strongly correlates with either flow peak and volume, surge peak, or a combination of both. The study also shows that it is possible to use the results obtained from the 1 m analysis to generalize the findings for the entire CT coast to derive zones dominated by surge, river flow, or the compound effect of the two. This study can help coastal communities better understand the risk of the compound impacts of coastal storms, which is essential for increasing climate resilience.