Abstract
The transportation sector is becoming a major contributor to air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions, and a key sector for emission control. Given the relevant pollutant reduction measures have been in place, policymakers must quantify mitigation potential and synergies of existing policies to determine further measures. In this study, we aim to explore the potential and co-effects of transportation sector abatement policies on air pollutants and CO2 emissions during 2020–2060 in Guangdong. To more thoroughly assess the effectiveness of the policies, we also conducted analysis within transportation sub-sectors. The findings show that the co-benefit effects differ among various pollutants and sub-sectors. The strengthening emission standards scenario has the greatest short-term effect on reducing air pollutant emissions but no effect on CO2 as there is a lack of CO2 emission control standards. The optimising energy structure scenario presented the largest potential abatement, with a 60–90% reduction compared to the business-as-usual scenario in 2060. However, there are potential emission transfers, with SO2 (1.2 kt) and PM2.5 (1.5 kt) emission reductions, from electric vehicles to the power sector. Moreover, emission transfers among transportation sub-sectors were also found in the optimising transport modes scenario.
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