Abstract
In light of continued nutrient pollution in water bodies and anticipated insecurities related to future nutrient supplies, there is an increasing awareness of the need to use nutrients in a more circular way. As part of a food system design study in the Okanagan bioregion, BC Canada we set out to evaluate different food system scenarios for the year 2050 in terms of nutrient circularity. In doing so, the objective was to evaluate the circularity of nutrient flows not only in the Okanagan, but also in relation to exogenous regions, insofar as nutrient flows relate to feed and food consumption and production in the Okanagan. This is important because feed and food trade means that nutrient inputs to crop production in the Okanagan may make their way into organic residuals outside the Okanagan, and vice versa. If not accounted for, this may lead to a distorted picture when analyzing nutrient circularity. To this effect, we applied an analytical framework and calculation model that explicitly tracks nutrients from crop production to organic residual generation. The results of the study suggest that assessing nutrient circularity across nested scales was critical for two reasons. First, changes in overall nutrient flows in response to population increase and dietary change were found to be more pronounced outside the Okanagan. Second, our analysis clearly revealed the extent to which feed and food trade boost nutrient self-reliance in the Okanagan at the expense of nutrient self-reliance outside the Okanagan. This kind of analysis should therefore be useful to explore, ideally together with food system and organic residual management actors, how different food system and organic residual management scenarios perform in terms of nutrient circularity, in the geographical area being considered, but also how it impacts nutrient flows and circularity in the places with which feed and food are traded.
Highlights
The future of food is vividly debated (Garnett, 2014; Fraser et al, 2016; Willett et al, 2019)
The total quantity of nutrients in organic residuals that would be available for recovery increases both internal and external to the Okanagan—internally mostly because of an increased generation of food waste and human excreta and externally mostly because of an increased generation of animal manure that results from higher imports of livestock products
A number of recent studies have assessed the potential of nutrients in organic residuals to supply the nutrient inputs required for crop production
Summary
The future of food is vividly debated (Garnett, 2014; Fraser et al, 2016; Willett et al, 2019). Irrespective of our food future, feeding the human population requires a continuous supply of plant nutrients for crop production. The profligate input of synthetic fertilizers has compromised internal recycling of nutrients in food systems for sustained high yields (Conforti and Giampietro, 1997; Arizpe et al, 2011). The need to continuously produce new synthetic fertilizers to maintain agricultural productivity, and the fact that the production of fertilizers largely relies on mining of geological resources and is energy intensive, raises issues in terms of nutrient security (Cordell et al, 2009; Manning, 2015; Razon, 2018), in some regions of the world (Jones et al, 2013). Nutrients are key productive inputs and comprehensive nutrient recycling from organic residuals can promote equal access to nutrients and enhance soil health
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