Abstract

A data set consisting of Volunteered geographical information (VGI) and data provided by expert researchers monitoring the first bloom dates of lilacs from 1956 to 2003 is used to investigate changes in the onset of the North American spring. It is argued that care must be taken when analysing data of this kind, with particular focus on the issues of lack of experimental design, and Simpson's paradox. Approaches used to overcome this issue make use of random coefficient modelling, and bootstrapping approaches. Once the suggested methods have been employed, a gradual advance in the onset of spring is suggested by the results of the analysis. A key lesson learned is that the appropriateness of the model calibration technique used given the process of data collection needs careful consideration.

Highlights

  • There is a long tradition of volunteers collecting and reporting different types of information about the environment we live in [35]

  • A number of models have been made to estimate the change in the onset of spring over a time period from 1956 to 2003, making use of data collated from a number of networks, making use of voluntary data

  • The data consisted of observed first bloom dates of lilacs

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Summary

Introduction

There is a long tradition of volunteers collecting and reporting different types of information about the environment we live in [35]. In some cases virtually no skills required of the volunteers, whereas in others some degree of volunteer instruction—and possibly selection—is necessary, so that the input of information has some degree of formal control. One example of the latter is given by Goodchild in the above reference who cites the US Christmas Bird Count, and states that. The paper is concluded with a short summary and discussion

The data
An initial analysis and a cautionary tale
Proposed alternative analyses
Concluding discussion
Full Text
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