Assessing the Capacity of the Water–Energy–Food Nexus in Enhancing Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Burundi

Abstract

In Burundi, a significant portion of the population heavily relies on agriculture for both sustenance and income. However, persistently low agricultural yields place approximately 1.8 million people at immediate risk of food insecurity. The purpose of this study was to explore the potential of the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus approach to strengthening agricultural sustainability and improving food security in Burundi. This study employs both the ARDL model and the ARIMA model to analyze the impact of water, energy, and land on agricultural yield while also projecting their future dynamics in Burundi. The results highlight a positive correlation between these resources and agricultural yield, demonstrating that a 1% increase in each of these variables would collectively result in a 3.74% increase in agricultural yield. Furthermore, the predictive findings reveal an anticipated decrease in agricultural yield by approximately 74.9 kg ha−1 and a reduction in agricultural land spanning up to 11.9 × 104 hectares by the year 2030. As a contribution to the body of knowledge, this study introduces a framework for the WEF nexus and sustainable agriculture, providing fresh perspectives to the literature on resource nexus studies in Burundi and among other practitioners in Africa.