Assessing the Bankruptcy Risks of China's Emerging Port Industries: Modeling and Early Warning

Abstract

Vigorously developing emerging marine industries are an important way for China to implement the strategy of “Sea Power Nation”, and improving the ability of port enterprises to prevent financial and tax risks is a key link in accelerating the high-quality development of the marine economy. The research objective of this paper is to construct a reasonable early warning financial model for emerging port industries in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Greater Bay Area. The research hypothesis is that the original Z-SCORE model and F-SCORE model are not able to accurately predict the financial risk of emerging marine industries. The data of typical port enterprises are utilized to compare the financial risk; after that risk assessment and early warning are carried out. This paper adopts the Delphi method to assign weights to different indicators and utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process method to derive a financial and tax early warning model applicable to Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Greater Bay Area. The results of the study found that the traditional “Z-score model” and “F-score model” are less applicable to the emerging industries in the ports of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Greater Bay Area. This paper will construct a financial and tax risk control model corresponding to the development of port emerging industries and provide early warning when exceeding a certain threshold to help enterprises develop better. In addition, this paper also puts forward policy suggestions for risk management of emerging port industries from the aspects of system improvement and government-enterprise linkage.