Assessing the adequacy of the global land-based mine development pipeline in the light of future high-demand scenarios: The case of the battery-metals nickel (Ni) and cobalt (Co).

Abstract

The electrical vehicle (EV) boom forecasted for the next decades raises questions on the mining industry's ability to provide enough battery-metals, such as nickel and cobalt, needed for this energy revolution. In this study, we investigate the limits of the mining industry pipeline for development of new mines for these two metals, regarding both the size of total anticipated production capacity and the pace of mine development.To provide transparency about the data used, we enclose an extensive database that reflects the state of the industrial nickel and cobalt mining industry in 2019. Using declared and estimated overall recovery factors for current mining operations, our database allows to distinguish between the 2019 ‘cradle’ production (i.e. metal contained in material raised from the Earth) and the ‘gate’ production (i.e. the amount of metal contained in various sales products).The database also provides an up-to-date estimate of the established mineral resources and reserves of the metals, which can further be split between different deposit types, mineral processing, or sale product types. Current global resources for the two metals, which for more than 80 percent consist of industry-standard (code-based) estimates, amount to 269 Mt nickel metal and 21.3 Mt cobalt metal, respectively. The resources are about 100 or more times larger than the 2019 ‘cradle’ production for the metals, illustrating that resource depletion will not be a pressing issue on the short to medium term.The size of the future anticipated mine production is estimated from the size of the resources of current advanced exploration and development projects using the resources-versus-production relationship that exists for operating mines today. A review of historical lead times for nickel mine development in the timeframes 1960–1979, 1980–1999 and 2000–2020, based on 67 mines of different sizes, types, and global locations, indicate that the time elapsed between the start of the last successful exploration campaign and the beginning of commercial mine production (the so-called “lead time III”) has significantly increased during the last two decades, as shown by a shift in the median from 8 to 12 years. While timeframes for fund raising and construction of mining projects (here defined as the ‘development lead time’) have remained largely constant (median of 4 years), demonstrating the feasibility of a project (‘feasibility lead time’) has apparently become more time-consuming.Evaluation of the size of anticipated metal production and the lead time for mine development indicates that most scenarios for metal demand over the next 10–15 years, especially the high-case scenarios that aim to reach the carbon emission goals of the Paris Agreement, cannot be met by the development of new, land-based mines alone. Since supply from battery recycling will be relatively limited over these timeframes, additional primary supply will be needed. This will require a vast capacity increase of existing land-based mines, and potentially, the development of marine resources.