Assessing the adequacy of North American agricultural land resources

Abstract

This paper provides a prospective analysis of supply/demand conditions for agricultural land in Canada and the U.S.A. according to various growth scenarios and an assessment of the economic and environmental costs associated with expanding and intensifying the cropland base. Future cropland expansion is estimated on the basis of the interrelationship between growth in demand and the productivity of cereal output. The adequacy of the land resource base is assessed by comparing individual projections with expected reserves of cropland adjusted for non-agricultural demands for land. Within the context of these findings the paper proceeds with a general discussion of the man-made, resource and environmental constraints to expanding production and the resulting economic and environmental costs to society.