Abstract
This paper analyses the occurrence of temporary speed restrictions in railway infrastructure associated with railway track geometry degradation. A negative binomial regression model is put forward to estimate the expected number of temporary speed restrictions, controlling for the main quality indicators of railway track geometry degradation and for the maintenance and renewal actions/decisions. The prediction of temporary speed restrictions provides a quantitative way to support the assessment of unavailability costs to railway users. A case study on the Lisbon–Oporto Portuguese line is explored, comparing three statistical models: the Poisson, the ‘over-dispersed’ Poisson and the proposed negative binomial regression. Main findings suggest that the main quality indicators for railway track geometry degradation are statistically significant variables, apart from the maintenance and renewal actions. Finally, a discussion on the impacts of the unavailability costs associated with temporary speed restrictions is also provided in a regulated railway context.
Highlights
Highlights: Abstract: This paper analyses the occurrence of temporary speed restrictions in railway infrastructure associated with railway track geometry degradation
The outline of this paper is as follows: this first section introduces the need to assess the occurrence of temporary speed restrictions in railway infrastructure and reviewed the past research on railway delays, focusing on the delays related with maintenance and renewal actions
One of the hypotheses to explore in the following statistical approach was related with whether or not the quality indicators for rail track geometry lead to significant change in Y, i.e. the variability of the expected number of temporary speed restrictions that a 200-m long track section suffers in a trimester period
Summary
The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes provided that:. A negative binomial regression model is put forward to estimate the expected number of temporary speed restrictions, controlling for the main quality indicators of railway track geometry degradation and for the maintenance and renewal actions/decisions. These delays were above defined as planned infrastructure delays because they are associated with medium-/longterm downgrades of speed performance due to reductions of the maximum permissible speed As these changes immediately affect the train schedule production, they are not perceived by the other railway agents and they may hide a poor performance of the IM in terms of asset management regarding maintenance and renewal actions. The outline of this paper is as follows: this first section introduces the need to assess the occurrence of temporary speed restrictions in railway infrastructure and reviewed the past research on railway delays, focusing on the delays related with maintenance and renewal actions (or the ‘infrastructure delays’). The last section highlights the main conclusions and suggests further research in this topic
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
